Projecting the runoff bump

When L.A.'s mayoral races have gone to a runoff, the vote total has increased an average of 18% from the primary.

An average bump this year would produce the lowest total since 1941.

Year Primary votes Runoff votes Change
2005 420,570 498,729 18.6%
2001 511,521 579,408 13.3%
1993 488,578 598,436 22.5%
1973 674,555 781,241 15.8%
1969 731,423 856,174 17.1%
1961 469,882 553,699 17.8%
1953 488,961 551,298 12.7%
1949 406,071 453,567 11.7%
1941 303,755 336,891 10.9%
1937 250,698 323,186 28.9%
1933 335,094 348,820 4.1%
1929 209,698 260,194 24.1%
1921 82,666 102,741 24.3%
1919 62,757 77,212 23.0%
1915 72,687 95,000 30.7%
1913 80,280 89,798 11.9%
Average 18.0%
2013 actual 377,881
2013 projection 445,900
Source: Los Angeles City Clerk | Download the data
Ben Welsh Los Angeles Times