The best picture race is tight, and each awards ceremony leading up to the Oscars has made it only tighter. Between the Directors Guild winner and the Producers Guild tie for top film this year, it’s all still pretty murky as to what emerges as the winner of the Academy Award come March 2. To assess the chances of this year’s nominees, we look for any similarities with winners from years past and compare styles, themes and characters to see if the nominees match up to proven Oscar pleasers. And, with the inclusion of a documentary winner, we find sturdy links to a statuette for all of them.
By Lisa Rosen
‘American Hustle’
‘Dallas Buyers Club’
‘Philomena’
‘12 Years a Slave’
‘Nebraska’
‘Her’
‘Captain Phillips’
‘The Wolf of Wall Street’
‘Gravity’
‘American Hustle’
Amy Adams as Sydney Prosser and Bradley Cooper as Richie Dimaso in the movie “American Hustle.” (Francois Duhamel / Columbia Pictures)
A couple of con artists get in way over their heads, and then get out with aplomb, even making the bigwig look like a big fool. Both “American Hustle” and 1973’s “The Sting” are period pieces with femmes fatales and costumes to die for, and both share a hustle within a hustle that keeps everyone on their toes.
‘Dallas Buyers Club’
Jared Leto as Rayon and Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof in the movie “Dallas Buyers Club.” (Anne Marie Fox / Focus Features)
Social and political outcasts become wary allies in the face of life-and-death stakes in “Dallas Buyers Club.” In another era, facing harsh intolerance of another kind, “In the Heat of the Night” features characters similarly maligned and aligned. As they square off against an institution bent on silencing them, Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto turn from antagonists to partners, just as Sidney Poitier and Rod Steiger did in the winning entry of 1967.
‘Philomena’
Judi Dench as Philomena Lee and Steve Coogan as Martin Sixsmith in the movie “Philomena.” (Alex Bailey / The Weisnstein Company)
The story of an unlikely friendship between opposites that blooms along the road shares a kinship with 1989 winner “Driving Miss Daisy.” As with “Daisy,” a bitter history of oppression looms out of the rearview mirror to haunt Philomena, played by Judi Dench. But in both movies, the tone stays light, even as the stories plumb the depths of heartbreak.
‘12 Years a Slave’
Lupita Nyong’o as Patsey and Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup” in the movie “12 Years a Slave.”
(Francois Duhamel / Fox Searchlight)
For bringing a historical horror to the screen in a way we’ve never seen before,”12 Years a Slave” closely resonates with “Schindler’s List.” Both true stories, both unbearably painful to watch, they also share a sadistic psychopath in a position of power and a hero who does whatever it takes to survive with his soul intact.
‘Nebraska’
Bruce Dern as Woody Grant and Will Forte as David Grant in the movie “Nebraska.” (Merie W. Wallace / Paramount Pictures)
Like 1988’s winning “Rain Man,” “Nebraska” heads out on a road trip with two reluctant family members, one of whom needs constant supervision. They initially strike out for the promise of monetary gain, but the journey becomes much deeper along the way.
‘Her’
Joaquin Phoenix as Theodore Towmbly and Olivia Wilde as a blind date in the movie “Her.” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
A lonely man brings forth a delightful creature who didn’t really exist before he met her. As she evolves exponentially, she bypasses his wildest expectations, as well as her own. Sounds a bit like “My Fair Lady,” winner in 1964, in which two characters — from such different strata as to be from different worlds — collide. They become friends, and then something else entirely. Even invisible, star Scarlett Johansson is every bit as winsome as Audrey Hepburn. The costumes in “My Fair Lady” are a bit prettier, though.
‘Captain Phillips’
Tom Hanks as Captain Phillips and Barkhad Abdirahman as Bilal in the movie “Captain Phillips.” (Jasin Boland / Columbia Pictures)
As was 1997’s “Titanic,” this film is based on a true story of terror at sea. And though the elements that the Maersk Alabama captain must battle are of a different nature than, well, nature, they are as relentless as that iceberg. The Somali pirates may even be more frightening than Billy Zane’s villainous fiancé.
‘The Wolf of Wall Street’
Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordan Belfort in the movie “The Wolf of Wall Street.” (Mary Cybulski / Paramount Pictures)
Exploring the American Dream as it morphs into absolute corruption, “Wolf” resembles 1972’s “The Godfather” on cocaine. And Quaaludes. And morphine. And, well, just about every drug that can be ingested and a few that probably can’t. Just substitute hookers for cannoli. In each story, the antihero pretty much gets away with a panoply of heinous crimes against society. Although it’s odd to consider that, in this particular cultural moment, the murderous Mafia don is easily the more likable of the two.
‘Gravity’
Sandra Bullock as Dr. Ryan Stone and George Clooney as Matt Kowalski in the movie “Gravity.” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
If only we could go on titles alone, 1953’s winner “From Here to Eternity” would do the trick here nicely. But alas, there is truly nothing like “Gravity” on the list of previous winners. Until we swim over to the best documentary category. There we find “The Silent World,” the 1956 winner co-directed by Jacques Cousteau and Louis Malle. The directors used cutting-edge cinematic technology and glorious Technicolor to reveal a world beneath the waves that almost nobody had ever seen. The participants float through that stunning, alien, dangerous world as gracefully as Sandra Bullock gliding through space. (And in even smaller skivvies.)