Guessing the 2014 Oscar best picture contenders

Matthew McConaughey, right, as Ron Woodroof in Jean-Marc Vallée’s drama “Dallas Buyers Club.” (Anne Marie Fox / Focus Features)

Actors branch likely to be all in with stars Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto. True-life AIDS crusader story will also win points for relevancy.

Reviews have fallen just shy of ecstatic. Will it have the passion vote to put it in among the nominees?

Bruce Dern as Woody Grant and Will Forte as his son David Grantas in Alexander Payne’s adventure drama “Nebraska.” (Merie W. Wallace / Paramount Pictures)

Director Alexander Payne’s last two movies, “The Descendants” and “Sideways,” earned best picture nominations. This movie’s intergenerational story of yearning and regret could hit the sweet spot with voters of all ages.

Black-and-white movie set in a fly-over state? Close-minded sorts may pass.

Oscar Isaac as Llewyn Davis in the Coen brothers’ musical drama “Inside Llewyn Davis.” (Alison Rosa / CBS Films)

Three of the Coen brothers’ last four movies have been nominated, with “No Country for Old Men” winning. You’re not dealing with morons.

Title character, a ‘60s Greenwich Village folk singer, has few redeeming qualities. Then again, many in the academy will likely relate on some level to this struggling artist staying true to his self-imposed artistic nobility while surrounded by rubes who just don’t get how great he is.

Oprah Winfrey as Gloria Gaines and Terrence Howard as Howard in the biopic “Lee Daniels’ The Butler.” (Anne Marie Fox / The Weinstein Co.)

It planted its flag early, racking up $115 million domestically after its mid-August opening. Headliners Forest Whitaker and Oprah Winfrey guarantee attention from the actors’ branch.

Reviews were all over the map, with many asserting that its intentions surpassed its artistic merit.

Julianne Nicholson as Ivy Weston, Meryl Streep as Violet Weston and Margo Martindale as Mattie Fae Aiken in John Wells’ comedic drama “August: Osage County.” (Claire Folger / The Weinstein Co.)

Pedigree in spades: Adapted from a play that won the Pulitzer and Tony, headlined by perennial nominee Streep and past winner Julia Roberts.

Some critics, reviewing from the Toronto International Film Festival, found the movie’s melodrama exhausting. A reflexive nomination for Streep might not extend to the film.

Tom Hanks as Walt Disney and Emma Thompson as novelist P.L. Travers in John Lee Hancock’s comedic drama “Saving Mr. Banks.” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

The behind-the-scenes story of “Mary Poppins” appeals to the thing Hollywood loves most: itself! An engaging cast — Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks (playing Walt Disney) — ensures a place at the top of the screener stack.

Hanks as Disney is the spoonful of sugar, but the earnest story might be a bit dull for those who like stronger medicine.

Joaquin Phoenix as Theodore in Spike Jonze’s romantic drama “Her.” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Filmmaker Spike Jonze has a strong, devoted following, and his movies have earned nominations for the likes of Meryl Streep, Nicolas Cage, Chris Cooper (who won for “Adaptation”) and, of course, John Malkovich. “Her,” a probing, highly imaginative look at love and loneliness, could connect on a deep enough level to make this Jonze’s first nominated film.

The movie’s surreal aspects could be off-putting to those with more conventional tastes. If you don’t laugh at Joaquin Phoenix commanding his device, “Play melancholy song.” Pause. “Play different melancholy song,” then this film probably isn’t on your list.

Judi Dench as Philomena Lee and Steve Coogan as Martin Sixsmith in Stephen Frears’ drama “Philomena.” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

The crowd-pleasing drama played great at Venice and Toronto, with audiences digging the salt-and-pepper pairing of Judi Dench and Steve Coogan. Could easily become the older set’s contender of choice.

Won’t arrive with much must-see buzz for hipster crowd. Commercial success as a Thanksgiving weekend counter-programmer would help its cause.

Robert Redford as an unnamed man in J.C. Chandor’s sea adventure drama “All Is Lost.” ( Daniel Daza / Roadside Attractions)

Boasts a career-best turn from Hollywood golden boy Robert Redford. And the movie’s pretty darn great too!

Despite the critical hosannas for Redford’s near-wordless, one-man show, commercial prospects for J.C. Chandor’s thrilling survival tale appear murky. Will enough voters see it?

Peter Sarsgaard as Dwight and Cate Blanchett as Jasmine in Woody Allen’s comedy drama “Blue Jasmine.” (Merrick Morton / Sony Pictures Classics)

Cate Blanchett’s devastating turn in the title role is a heavy favorite to win the lead actress Oscar. Woody Allen’s latest could ride in on her Chanel coattails.

Audiences could be unanimous on Blanchett but more mixed on the movie itself. Not nearly as loved as Woody’s last best picture nominee, “Midnight in Paris.”

Kate Winslet as Adele, Josh Brolin as Frank and Gattlin Griffith as Henry in Jason Reitman’s drama “Labor Day.” (Dale Robinette / MCT)

Writer-director Jason Reitman scored picture nominations for “Juno” and “Up in the Air” …

… but his last movie, “Young Adult,” didn’t land, and festival reviews for “Labor Day” have been underwhelming.

Ariana Neal, left, as Tatiana and Michael B. Jordan as Oscar Grant in Ryan Coogler’s drama biopic “Fruitvale Station.” (Cait Adkins / The Weinstein Co.)

A timely and, in the eyes of many, important look at a life cut short.

With a running time of less than 90 minutes, it may feel a bit slight for the category. Ryan Coogler’s indie directorial debut could be a better fit for the Spirit Awards.

Nico Liersch and Sophie Nélisse in Brian Percival’s “The Book Thief.” (Jules Heath / 20th Century Fox)

Fox is throwing a promotional push behind the young-adult WWII story that touches on the Holocaust. The tone of the pitch is on the one-sheet: “From the studio that brought you ‘Life of Pi’ …”

Well-meaning, but the adaptation has its share of structural issues and the presentation is, at times, heavy-handed. Reviews are likely to be mixed.

Ben Stiller as Walter Mitty and Kristen Wiig as Cheryl in Ben Stiller’s adventure drama “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.” (Wilson Webb / MCT)

Warmhearted and sentimental, it could fill academy’s warm-fuzzies, “Little Miss Sunshine” slot.

“Saving Mr. Banks” may have dibs on that slot. And the movie’s mix of whimsy and visual effects could strike some voters as too lightweight to be rewarded.

Hugh Jackman as Keller Doverl in Denis Villeneuve’s crime thriller “Prisoners.” (Wilson Webb / Warner Bros. Pictures)

The familiar premise is delivered with ambiguity and ambition without losing any of its primitive punch. Hugh Jackman has never been better.

Many academy members will dismiss, sight unseen, a revenge tale revolving around missing children. Tough to watch and without the historical trappings of “12 Years” or the timeliness of “Fruitvale Station.”