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From Toronto to the Oscars? Well …

To find an Oscar best picture winner that didn’t play at the Toronto International Film Festival, you have to go back to 2006 and Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed.” (The last three winners — “Argo,” “The Artist” and “The King’s Speech” — also screened at Telluride just before their Toronto appearances, which should make the makers of the already acclaimed historical drama “12 Years a Slave” feel pretty good right about now as it heads from its Telluride triumph to Toronto this week.)

How might this year’s Toronto festival contenders fare? Let’s chart the Academy Awards promise and potential pitfalls of the high-profile movies scheduled to screen there over the next week …

By Glenn Whipp

From Toronto to the Oscars? Well ...
Gravity’
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom’
Labor Day’
August: Osage County’
Dallas Buyers Club’
The Fifth Estate’
Prisoners’

12 Years a Slave’

Michael Fassbender as Edwin Epps, Lupita Nyong’o as Patsey and Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup in the historical drama “12 Years a Slave.” (Francois Duhamel / Fox Searchlight)

Premise:

Free black man (Chiwetel Ejiofor) is kidnapped in 1841 New York, and sold into slavery.

Pedigree:

Director Steve McQueen’s previous two movies — “Hunger” and “Shame” — scored high marks from critics. Stars Ejiofor and Michael Fassbender have been invited to the Globes, but not the Oscars. Not yet, anyway.

Best-case scenario:

Uncompromising depiction of slavery builds on ecstatic Telluride buzz. Ejiofor cements front-runner status for lead actor.

Worst-case scenario:

Word-of-mouth focuses on the movie’s scenes of rape, whipping and mutilation, giving squeamish film academy members pause.

Gravity’

Sandra Bullock as Dr. Ryan Stone and George Clooney as Matt Kowalsky in the sci-fi thriller “Gravity.” (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Premise:

Stranded astronauts (Sandra Bullock, George Clooney) fight to survive after debris cripples their craft.

Pedigree:

Director and co-writer Alfonso Cuarón has two Oscar noms for writing. Bullock and Clooney are both past Oscar winners.

Best-case scenario:

Comparisons to Stanley Kubrick’s “2001” keep on coming; Bullock lauded for career-best work.

Worst-case scenario:

2001” association proves a bit too apt, as sci-fi-averse voters gave Kubrick’s movie just one Oscar.

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom’

Idris Elba as anti-apartheid revolutionary Nelson Mandela in the biographic “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.” (The Weinstein Co.)

Premise:

South African president Nelson Mandela (Idris Elba) receives biopic treatment.

Pedigree:

Elba has a Globe and two Emmy noms for “Luther” and TV critics’ eternal love for “The Wire.”

Best-case scenario:

Elba elevates movie beyond standard biopic beats, joins Ejiofor in lead actor conversation.

Worst-case scenario:

Too many reviews contain the words “noble misfire.”

Labor Day’

Kate Winslet in the arms of Josh Brolin with Gattlin Griffith in the background in the film “Labor Day,” based on the Joyce Maynard novel of the same name. (Paramount Pictures)

Premise:

Single mother (Kate Winslet) and 13-year-old son (Gattlin Griffith) find their lives transformed when an escaped convict (Josh Brolin) forces his way into their home.

Pedigree:

Writer-director Jason Reitman has been to the dance before with “Juno” and “Up in the Air.” Winslet won the lead actress Oscar for “The Reader.”

Best-case scenario:

Tears translate to awards-season momentum for the Christmas release, an old-fashioned drama that marks a creative departure from Reitman’s past work.

Worst-case scenario:

Reitman’s festival live table read of “Boogie Nights” wins better reviews.

August: Osage County’

Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts in a scene from the dark comedy “August: Osage County.” (The Weinstein Co.)

Premise:

Dying matriarch (Meryl Streep) deals with prescription drug addiction and visiting family in Tracy Letts’ adaptation of his Pulitzer Prize winning play.

Pedigree:

Two Oscar-winning actresses (Streep and Julia Roberts, who plays her daughter).

Best-case scenario:

More love for Streep. Letts adds an Oscar nomination to already crowded mantle.

Worst-case scenario:

Joins past adaptations of Tony-winning plays — “The History Boys,” “Carnage,” “Doubt” — that work better as vehicles for actors than as movies.

Dallas Buyers Club’

Jared Leto as Rayon and Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof in Jean-Marc Vallee’s fact-based drama movie “Dallas Buyers Club.” (Anne Marie Fox / Focus Features)

Premise:

Homophobic hell-raiser (Matthew McConaughey) starts a smuggling ring for medications after he’s diagnosed as being HIV positive.

Pedigree:

Career rehabber McConaughey won numerous accolades last year for “Magic Mike,” “Killer Joe” and “Bernie”; and again for this spring’s “Mud.”

Best-case scenario:

McConaughey and Jared Leto, who plays a transsexual partner in the drug-smuggling group, vault to the top of acting awards discussion.

Worst-case scenario:

The actors’ weight loss is more remarkable than the movie itself.

The Fifth Estate’

Benedict Cumberbatch as Julian Assange with Daniel Bruhl as Daniel Domscheit-Berg in the WikiLeaks drama “The Fifth Estate.” (Frank Connor / Dreamworks Studios)

Premise:

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange (Benedict Cumberbatch) receives a “Social Network”-style close-up from Oscar-winning filmmaker Bill Condon.

Pedigree:

The red-hot Cumberbatch is currently up for an Emmy for HBO miniseries “Parade’s End.” And we mentioned Condon (“Gods and Monsters,” “Chicago”).

Best-case scenario:

An “All the Presidents Men” for the 21st century.

Worst-case scenario:

The movie’s off-putting subject proves as elusive on film as he is in life.

Prisoners’

Jake Gyllenhaal as a tough detective and Hugh Jackman as a desperate father in the dramatic thriller “Prisoners.” (Wilson Webb/MCT)

Premise:

Two young girls disappear in a small Pennsylvania town. A father (Hugh Jackman) and detective (Jake Gyllenhaal) search for answers.

Pedigree:

First-rate cast also includes Melissa Leo, Terrence Howard and Viola Davis. Director Denis Villeneuve’s last movie, “Incendies,” was Oscar-nominated for foreign language film.

Best-case scenario:

Strong Telluride reviews propel picture into a festival must-see. Jackman and Gyllenhaal join awards-season conversation.

Worst-case scenario:

Graphic crime-thriller proves too grim for general audiences.